Thursday, August 1, 2013

2013-2014 preliminary winter outlook #2

PART ONE: ENSO
It may be safe to say that this upcoming winter, the ENSO cycle will be staying away from the cool phase, known as a La Nina. As of right now, confidence is high that we should stay in a neutral phase, but determining what neutral phase is the question.. According to multiple models, the ENSO cycle could begun to rise onto the warmer side of things, while others stay in the negative phase.
ENSO Model's forecast
IRI
The IRI plumes seem to be locked to the idea of the ENSO hanging around the neutral area, but remaining in a cool neutral phase.
JMA
Much like the IRI, the JMA plumes seem to be staying in the cool neutral phase as well.
EURO
The EURO plumes seem to be in good agreement that we may move into a warm neutral phase.
NCAR
Just like the EURO, the NCAR seems to agree with the rise into a warm neutral phase
UKMET
ENSO cycle discussion: This will play a big role into would we could see for this upcoming winter. It is still too soon to tell which should of the playing field we will be on but bottom line is that, now it looks more certain that we will remain in a neutral phase rather than going into a La Nina.
As I've said before, a cool neutral phase of the ENSO would support a warmer and drier east coast while a warm neutral could support a cooler than normal and snowier winter for the east coast, IF everything came together during the season. By everything,  I mean teleconnections which brings me to my next topic.
PART TWO: Teleconnections
NAO
The NAO index during the winter season holds one significant purpose in my opinion, which is to control the jet stream over the U.S. During a negative phase of the NAO, the jet stream is allowed to travel up the east coast, bringing low pressure systems with it. This pattern working with a positive PNA is responsible for bringing massive snowstorms to the east coast. As of right now there isn't really a detectable pattern in the NAO index which really puts a damper on things as this can be a really dominate factor during the winter season.
PNA
The PNA is a major influencer during the winter months. It is responsible for where warm and cold air travels. If you've followed along with my blog for a while now, then you know what this index does. Much like the NAO, the PNA isn't really showing a pattern of its own but for much of the summer, the PNA has been positive but they do say, and I quote, "what happens during the summer tends to repeat itself over the winter"(not a big fan of that quote I must say)

PART THREE: Analog years
Analog years being examined
1997
1951
1962
1967
1996
2001
There are many years that went into this outlook but only two really stand out to me, judging by sea surface temperatures. The winter of 2002 & 2003 both had a PDO and ENSO trending warmer at the same time coming off of a neutral to warm neutral ENSO the previous winter.  Typically this does occur as waters in the equatorial pacific tend to tap into the waters in the northern pacific. Both of these two winters offered a much cooler than average winter for the east coast.(**This 2 years are judged by the PDO as the ENSO cycle is still unclear, along with uncertainties in the teleconnections**)
2002
2003

PART FOUR: My outlook
Temperature

Snowfall
My current thoughts as far as snowfall would be the dominate Bermuda high that has held its own during the spring into the summer. With that being said, i don't really expect that to immediately go away during the winter season. Possibly the jet stream could take storms into the Great Lakes for the first half of then winter season, and then began to move closer to the coast as the season progresses.

PART FIVE: Recap
 This winter is starting to look a little more exciting than previous thoughts. If things pan out the way they look to, things on the east coast look to be exciting and will be fun to forecast. As always, trying to make an accurate forecast for a season that's 6 months away is nearly impossible. With that being said, bare with me because things can and will change


What to look forward to in the last preliminary out:
~A look into more teleconnections
~Hurricane season similarities
~ Past years similarities

~ Update on ENSO cycle
~Update on Teleconnections


*Starting this Monday, a variety of long range models will be shown on Monday's. These models will focus on the winter season ahead or the month prior to the start of the winter season. Every Monday, one long range model will be shown and a brief summary will be posted along with it*

So remember, the last preliminary outlook will be released on October 1st at 1pm. So make sure to mark your calendars and tell your friends and share this on Facebook!

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